-It was a November to remember for the heating oil futures market, with a 14% price swing leading into a sweater-shedding drop to below $1.60 a gallon - the lowest price since late July - as the December-delivery contract expired. While it wasn’t exactly July weather, November was warmer than normal in the New York harbor region - the world’s largest heating oil market. While some in the market talk about what wasn’t: cold weather - let’s talk about what was: an impressively accurate weather forecast from a perhaps surprising source - The Old Farmer’s Almanac.

In an age when TV weathermen are quoting the latest Doppler 6000 data, the Almanac makes weather forecasts based on a proprietary formula developed by its founder, Robert B. Thomas, back in 1792. Its yellow cover still features a nail-hole for hanging on the outhouse door and its forecasts are tucked in among planting tables, tips on animal husbandry, recipes and quirky tales like ‘’How To Teach Old Chickens New Tricks.'’ It claims an 80% seasonal accuracy rate over the past 214 years - but as oil traders will inevitably ask: What has it done for me lately? For November, the Almanac’s forecast - prepared by Accu-Weather using Thomas’ age-old secrets based on tracking sunspot activity was on the money. In the Atlantic Corridor - from Boston to Richmond, Virginia - the forecast called for temperatures 4 degrees above normal in the north and 1 degree above in the south. The bulls-eye of the region is New York City, where temperatures were smack in the middle of the range at 2.7 degrees above normal.
And the Almanac’s winter outlook suggests the Nymex price rally since December’s expiration may be well supported for the next couple of months.

December’s average temperature will be 6 degrees below normal; January 2006, 7 degrees below normal; February 7 degrees above normal and March 1 degree below normal.

The end of November was supposed to bring the end of hurricane season to the U.S. Gulf Coast region. But as this record-breaking season has shown, if Mother Nature pays little heed to man-made inventions such as buildings, oil rigs and refineries, what respect will she have for a calendar? History suggests that after suffering through Katrina and her evil twin, Rita, the key oil producing and refining region is in for a respite as rebuilding continues. In the past century, only 1 major hurricane has made landfall in Texas or Louisiana after September, according to the U.S. National Weather Service.

That’s some solace as trackers report that Hurricane Epsilon has formed in the Atlantic, but doesn’t appear to be a threat to land.
While the worst of this hurricane season is past, forecasters warn that we’re in a violent, active cycle for years to come.