China, US And The Long March For Oil
While the U.S. and China continued sniping over the details of the Kyoto Protocol aimed at cutting polluting carbon emissions, a key U.S. senator has emerged as a voice of reason, calling, in effect for a combined Long March toward energy security for the two major consumers. Sen. Joe Lieberman, D-Conn. told the Council on Foreign Relations on Wednesday that the U.S. - the world’s largest oil consumer - and China - with its soaring oil demand growth - are on a collision course for future supplies, and should be acting as partners, not rivals.
‘’It’s time for the U.S. and China…to begin to talk more directly about this global competition of oil,'’ he said. ‘’Wars have been fought over such competition for natural resources. If we let it go, this could end up in a real military conflict.'’
Lieberman argues it ‘’makes sense'’ for the two biggest oil consumers to cooperate on use of more secure, renewable energy supplies. He noted China’s demand is forecast to double in the next 20 years, while U.S. use will grow by 40% in the same period.
He also called for China to join the Internatonal Energy Agency, the West’s energy watchdog.
While Lieberman made his call, China told a U.N. conference on cutting emissions that the U.S. should join the Kyoto treaty, rejecting arguments that it is flawed because it fails to restrict emissions from developing countries. Associated Press quoted Sun Guoshunis, a senior foreign ministry official, as saying China was cutting its pollution and that it was unfair to ask people in impoverished nations - such as China and India - with the world’s largest populations - to cut back on energy use. The U.S. - the world’s largest polluter - has called for a reduction its emissions, but won’t sign on to the Kyoto pact. IEA’s Chief Economist Fatih Birol estimated that by 2030, the increase in carbon dioxide emissions from China will be 30% greater than the combined CO2 emissions from the U.S., Canada, Japan, Australia and others combined.
On the other side of the world, Saudi Arabia was confirming its plans to gain a greater footing in China’s growing oil market. An official of state-owned Saudi Aramco said plans are afoot for building a 250,000 barrels a day refinery in northeast China’s Qingdao area in addition to on-going plans to triple capacity at the 80,000 b/d Fujian province refinery in the southeast.
Unlike in the telecoms industry, where the population of developing countries go from no telephone at all to the most modern of cells phones, the transportation sector seems on an inevitable path of old-fashioned cheap and dirty fuels as the make the great leap forward into the auto age. And that’s just the way that Saudis and their Middle East neighbors, holding the lion’s share of global oil reserves want to see it for decades to come.
